Threat modeling

What is threat modeling?

Threat modeling is a structured process that identifies and addresses potential security threats in a system, application, or process. It provides a proactive approach to security by predicting how attackers might exploit weaknesses and planning effective countermeasures. This helps prioritize security efforts by focusing on the most critical risks to ensure your systems are designed with security in mind from the outset.

Summary

Threat modeling is a crucial part of cybersecurity that involves analyzing a system or app to identify potential threats, vulnerabilities, and security gaps. This enables developers to anticipate how attackers might exploit these vulnerabilities and design preventative actions early in the software development life cycle (SDLC).

Key aspects of threat modeling include understanding the system architecture, identifying valuable assets, pinpointing potential attack vectors, and assessing the impact of potential threats.

OWASP provides widely recognized guidance on threat modeling, emphasizing a structured approach to identifying and mitigating security risks in web apps. App threat modeling specifically focuses on securing software apps against targeted attacks. Common frameworks used in threat modeling include STRIDE, PASTA, DREAD, and VAST, each offering unique methods for identifying and prioritizing threats.

Deep dive

Threat modeling in the development life cycle

Integrating threat modeling into the SDLC helps your organization improve its security posture, reduce vulnerabilities, and mitigate risks before they become critical. It helps ensure security is considered from the earliest stages of development. This approach can minimize vulnerabilities and lower the costs of fixing security issues post-deployment. By identifying threats early, developers can design more secure systems, reducing the risk of security breaches after launch. Threat modeling typically occurs during the design phase but should be revisited throughout the lifecycle to address new threats as the system evolves.

OWASP Threat Modeling process

The OWASP (Open Web Application Security Project) provides comprehensive resources and guidance on threat modeling, including the OWASP Threat Modeling process. This approach identifies security threats to web apps by understanding attacker perspectives, mapping data flows, identifying potential vulnerabilities, and defining defensive measures. OWASP’s structured process includes defining your assets, creating an architecture overview, identifying threats, and defining mitigations that help your organization assess security risks in your apps.

App threat modeling

App threat modeling focuses on identifying and mitigating security threats that target software apps. Techniques like STRIDE categorize and assess risks, helping teams understand potential attack methods and prioritize security efforts to protect critical app functions.

Threat modeling frameworks

Several threat modeling frameworks guide the structured approach to threat analysis:

STRIDE: Developed by Microsoft, STRIDE (spoofing, tampering, repudiation, information disclosure, denial of service, elevation of privilege) categorizes threats into six main types, helping teams understand potential attacker techniques and identify security gaps.
PASTA: Process for attack simulation and threat analysis, or PASTA, is a risk-centric methodology that aligns security measures with business objectives through a seven-step process—from defining business objectives to prioritizing threats.
DREAD (Damage potential, reproducibility, exploitability, affected users, and discoverability): These factors help identify and focus on the most critical and manageable risks, ensuring targeted security efforts. DREAD assesses a threat’s impact severity, replication capabilities, how simple it is to carry out the attack, the number of users impacted, and how easy it is for attackers to find the vulnerability.
VAST: VAST (visual, agile, and simple threat) integrates threat modeling into agile development workflows to allow continuous assessment and adaptation to new threats, making it ideal for large-scale, complex environments.

Examples

Repackaging attacks on financial apps: Attackers modify legitimate banking and finance apps and distribute malicious versions that often hide malware to steal sensitive information. By using threat modeling, organizations can identify vulnerabilities—like repackaging—before they are exploited. The App Threat Report, which tested hundreds of apps, found that 61% were vulnerable to such attacks. Threat modeling helps mitigate these risks early, strengthening your app's security posture.
Malware injection and reverse engineering: Attackers use malware injection and manipulate app processes to control them from within. This can involve code injection into legitimate apps to intercept user data like credentials or payment information. App threat modeling helps developers anticipate these attacks by analyzing how malware might exploit vulnerabilities in the app’s runtime environment and implementing safeguards to prevent such compromises.
Threat modeling at GitHub: GitHub uses threat modeling to secure its platform by evaluating data flows and identifying threats early, ensuring code repositories are protected against unauthorized access and manipulation.

History

Threat modeling began in the 1990s, notably with Microsoft's development of the STRIDE model to address security concerns during software design. Initially considered niche, it was often overshadowed by reactive measures like antivirus software. However, as cyberattacks became more sophisticated, the industry shifted towards proactive security, integrating threat modeling into development workflows.

New frameworks like PASTA and DREAD refined the process, aligning it with agile and DevSecOps practices—embedding security into every stage of the development lifecycle, combining development, security, and operations.

Today, threat modeling is a critical component across sectors like finance and healthcare, driven by the need to anticipate attacks and meet regulatory requirements, embedding security directly into the software development lifecycle.

Future

AI-driven threat analysis and integration into DevSecOps pipelines are helping automate threat identification and making the process faster, more accurate, and adaptive to evolving threats. The growing regulatory focus on security will further drive the adoption of threat modeling as organizations seek to meet compliance requirements like General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), NIST standards, and sector-specific regulations. Frameworks like VAST are gaining traction for their ability to integrate threat modeling into agile workflows, enabling continuous threat analysis and risk management throughout development cycles.

The rise of cloud-native apps and microservices architecture presents new challenges and opportunities for threat modeling. Organizations are increasingly adopting tools that provide real-time feedback and integrate seamlessly into CI/CD processes for iterative threat analysis with each software update. As security becomes a more embedded component of the development lifecycle, threat modeling will likely incorporate advanced analytics and machine learning to predict and prioritize potential threats, making security more proactive and resilient in the face of complex, emerging cyber threats.